Pestilence et profit : la guerre des vaccins de RFK Jr. est-elle réellement bénéfique pour la biotechnologie ?

The pharmaceutical landscape is shifting under our feet. In a move that sent shockwaves through the industry, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has terminated over $500 million in federal funding for mRNA research, directly impacting giants like Moderna and Pfizer. Simultaneously, and perhaps more subtly, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has voted to delay the Hepatitis B vaccination for newborns—a standard of care for three decades.

The immediate reaction from Wall Street was predictable: fear. Vaccine stocks took a hit as guaranteed government contracts evaporated. But savvy contrarian investors are starting to whisper a darker, more cynical thesis: Could the return of preventable diseases actually be the biggest bull signal for biotech in a decade?

The “Kennedy Shock”: A Double Whammy

To understand the market implications, we first need to look at the policy changes in raw numbers.

1. The mRNA Massacre

Kennedy hasn’t just trimmed the fat; he’s severed the artery. By cancelling BARDA contracts for “Project NextGen,” the administration has effectively defunded the immediate future of rapid-response vaccine development.

• The justification: Kennedy cites “safety concerns” and a preference for older “whole-virus” vaccine technology.
• The reality: mRNA is the only platform speed-capable of catching up to a fast-moving pandemic. Reverting to 1950s technology means a 6-month lag time for new shots.

2. The Hep B Retreat

The CDC’s decision to move the Hep B birth dose to 2 months (for low-risk infants) seems minor, but it signals a major philosophy shift: The “Better Safe Than Sorry” era is over. This opens the door for holes in the “herd immunity” shield, specifically relying on maternal screening that misses ~16% of cases.

The Bear Case: Why The Sector Is Bleeding

The bear case is straightforward and currently pricing the market.

• Revenue Cliffs: Companies like Moderna (MRNA) rely heavily on government partnership. Without the U.S. government as a guaranteed buyer/developer, their cash burn becomes a massive liability.
• Regulatory Quagmire: With Kennedy overhauling the FDA and CDC, the approval process is now a wild card. Unpredictability is the enemy of investment.

The Cynical Bull Case: Profiting from Pestilence

Here is where the “Death, Disease, and Pestilence” thesis emerges. If the government stops paying for prevention, the private sector will eventually be paid a premium for cure.

1. Therapeutics > Vaccines

From a pure profit margin perspective, vaccines are terrible business. They are low-margin, high-volume products sold to governments.

• The Alternative: Therapeutics (treatments for the sick) are high-margin products sold to insurance companies and desperate patients.
• The Scenario: If vaccination rates drop and measles, whooping cough, or a new flu variant surges, the demand for antivirals, monoclonal antibodies, and hospital-grade treatments will skyrocket.
• The Play: Look at companies specializing in treatment rather than prevention. Regeneron (REGN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) (with their massive war chests) are better positioned than pure vaccine plays.

2. The “Panic Premium”

Governments are penny-wise and pound-foolish. They may cut $500 million in “peace time” funding today, but when an outbreak hits the news cycle, they will panic-spend billions.

• In a crisis, price sensitivity vanishes.
• The government will likely have to contract private biotechs at emergency rates to solve problems they created by defunding preparedness.
• This creates “Introduction to Volatility” opportunities where stocks can 5x in a week on outbreak news.

3. The Survival of the Fittest

Kennedy’s “listening tours” with CEOs suggest a consolidation of power. He may be cutting funding for innovators and disruptors (like mRNA startups), but legacy pharma giants with deep lobbying roots may find themselves with a protected moat. The destruction of small, government-dependent biotechs actually reduces competition for the titans.

Reality Check: The Risks Involved

Before you bet the house on the plague, understand the structural risks.

• Infrastructure Collapse: If BARDA and the clinical trial networks are dismantled, the U.S. might physically lose the ability to manufacture the cure, even if unlimited money is thrown at it.
• Liability Shifts: The PREP Act often shields vaccine makers from liability during declared emergencies. If that protection is eroded by Kennedy’s DOJ/HHS, the legal risk of selling any medical product becomes uninvestable.

Buying Advice: How to Trade the Chaos

If you believe we are entering an era of “Public Health Retreat,” here is how to position a portfolio:

1. Short/Avoid Pure-Play Vaccine Stocks: Companies like Novavax or early-stage mRNA firms that need federal grants to survive are now in the “Death Zone.”
2. Long “Crisis Managers”: Focus on diversified pharmas with strong Antiviral and Therapeutic pipelines. If people get sick, these companies get paid.
3. Watch the “Panic Index”: Keep an eye on regional outbreak news. The moment a cluster of bird flu or measles hits a major metro area, the algorithm bots will bid up everything with “Bio” in the name.

The Verdict: This isn’t a healthy bull market built on innovation and growth. It’s a “Disaster Market” built on volatility and crisis management. Proceed with extreme caution, but don’t ignore the grim potential for profit in a sicker world.