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On June 22, the US Treasury quietly made buying Iranian crude legal through August 21. Fifteen days later it revoked the license. The paperwork tells a colder story than the ceasefire headlines: the deal was a supply valve, opened to crush a wartime oil premium and shut the moment the price fell.
The United States went to war to end Iran's nuclear program. The deal it signed on June 17 commits to lifting every sanction, clears the way for at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran, and leaves that program standing. The decision was not made on the battlefield. It was made in the oil market, where a closed Strait of Hormuz threatened to drag the West into recession.
Three days after the UAE's OPEC exit took effect, Iran put a drone into the port that justified the exit. The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone is on fire, an empty ADNOC tanker is hit off Oman, and Brent is up 6%. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline still flows. The premise that Fujairah was outside the war does not.
On Sunday evening, Trump posted "Project Freedom" on Truth Social. It is the third Hormuz reset he has pre-announced in eight weeks. The first failed to move ships off a 4-per-day flatline. The second crashed Brent 13.7% over two sessions before Iran fired on cleared Indian tankers eleven days later. The third is timed for Sunday-night NYMEX. The market has seen this movie twice already.
Brent crashed 15% on April 7 after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. But Iran's Foreign Minister revealed Trump accepted the 'general framework' of Iran's 10-point proposal -not the other way around. Iran keeps control of the Strait, its military intact, and the negotiating leverage. Oil crashed on Trump's terms. The deal is Iran's.