주권 AI: 새로운 국가 인프라 군비 경쟁

Key Takeaways

• Compute as a Strategic Asset: Nations are reclassifying data centers and GPUs as critical national infrastructure, on par with energy grids and defense systems.
• The “AI Bloc” Formation: The internet is fracturing into “AI Blocs” defined by hardware supply chains (US/Nvidia vs. China/Huawei) and data residency laws.
• France’s Sovereign Model: Led by Mistral and Kyutai, France is aggressive in building a “Third Way” focused on open weights and domestic compute power to avoid US dependency.
• The Energy-Intelligence Nexus: Sovereign AI is driving a massive rethink of energy policy, with nuclear (France) and renewables (UAE) becoming directly tied to national intelligence capabilities.

Introduction

Current AI history is being written not just in Silicon Valley code editors, but in the cabinet meetings of Paris, Tokyo, and Abu Dhabi. For the last decade, the unspoken rule of the internet was simple: the United States provides the platforms (Google, AWS, Microsoft), and the world provides the users. That arrangement worked when the internet was about communication and commerce. It does not work when the internet becomes the brain of the state.

“Compute is the new oil,” Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, famously declared. But if compute is oil, then data centers are the refineries, and Large Language Models (LLMs) are the refined fuel that powers modern economies. In 2025, world leaders have woken up to a terrifying realization: they have outsourced their cognitive infrastructure to foreign corporations.

If the US government can subpoena Microsoft for data stored in Dublin (via the CLOUD Act), or if a change in OpenAI’s safety policy can unilaterally alter how a French hospital processes patient data, then “digital sovereignty” is a myth. This realization has triggered the race for Sovereign AI—the capacity for a nation to produce artificial intelligence using its own infrastructure, data, workforce, and business networks. This is not just about national pride; it is about national survival in the algorithmic age.

Background: The Great Awakening

To understand the Sovereign AI race, we must look at the “API Trap.” Between 2020 and 2023, as GPT-3 and GPT-4 demonstrated the power of generative AI, governments rushed to integrate these tools. However, they quickly hit the wall of Data Residency.

The Cloud Act & GDPR Collision

European and Asian policymakers realized that relying on API endpoints hosted in US-East-1 meant exporting their citizens’ most sensitive data—medical records, tax information, legal documents—to servers under US jurisdiction. The US CLOUD Act (Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data Act) allows US federal law enforcement to compel US-based technology companies to provide requested data stored on servers regardless of whether the data are stored within or outside the United States.

For a nation like France, which prides itself on strategic autonomy, this was unacceptable. It created a situation where the “intelligence” of the state existed only at the pleasure of a foreign superpower.

The Chip Ban Catalyst

The second catalyst was the US export controls on high-end GPUs to China. While intended to curb China’s military AI development, it sent a shockwave through the rest of the world (the “Global South” and non-aligned nations). It demonstrated that access to intelligence infrastructure is a privilege that can be revoked. If you don’t own the hardware, you don’t own the future. This accelerated investments in domestic “AI Clouds” in Japan, the UAE, and India to ensure they had a stockpile of compute that couldn’t be bricked remotely.

France: The “Third Way” Champion

France has emerged as the most aggressive Western nation in pursuing Sovereign AI, actively trying to carve out a “Third Way” between the US and China.

The Commercial Champion: Mistral AI

Mistral AI is the crown jewel of this strategy. Founded by former Meta and DeepMind researchers (Arthur Mensch, Timothée Lacroix, Guillaume Lample), Mistral focuses on efficiency and open weights. By releasing models like Mistral Large and Mixtral 8x22B, they provide European companies with a performant alternative to GPT-4 that can be hosted on-premises.

This “on-prem” capability is the killer feature for sovereignty. A French defense contractor can run Mistral on their own private cluster of H100s, ensuring zero data leakage to OpenAI or Microsoft.

The Research Hub: Kyutai

To support this, Xavier Niel (owner of Iliad) and Eric Schmidt backed Kyutai, a non-profit open-science AI lab in Paris, with €300 million. This ensures that the basic science of AI remains in the public domain, preventing a complete capture by US corporate labs.

Infrastructure: The Nuclear Advantage

France’s secret weapon is its nuclear grid. AI training is incredibly energy-intensive. Training a frontier model requires gigawatt-hours of electricity. France’s low-carbon, stable nuclear, baseload provides a massive competitive advantage for hosting Sovereign AI data centers compared to the coal-heavy grids of Germany or the capacity-constrained grids of the UK.

The UAE: Oil Wealth to Digital Intelligence

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) offers a different model: state-directed capital deployment at massive scale.

Falcon and G42

The UAE’s Technology Innovation Institute (TII) stunned the world with the release of Falcon 180B, an open-source model that rivaled the best US proprietary models at the time. This was a statement of intent: the UAE would not just be a consumer of AI, but a producer.

The key player here is G42, the Abu Dhabi-based AI holding company. G42 has been instrumental in building out massive data centers essential for Sovereign AI.

The Microsoft Deal & The Pivot

The geopolitical friction here is palpable. In April 2024, Microsoft announced a $1.5 billion investment in G42. On the surface, it looked like a standard partnership. In reality, it was a geopolitical treaty. As part of the deal, G42 agreed to strip out Chinese hardware (Huawei gear) from its stack to secure access to Nvidia chips and Microsoft Azure services.

This illustrates the “AI Bloc” formation: The UAE had to choose a side to get the “refined fuel” (advanced AI models and chips). They chose the US stack, but are maintaining sovereignty by owning the physical infrastructure and the license to the models.

Japan: The Robot Revolution

Japan’s approach to Sovereign AI is deeply tied to its demographic crisis and its strength in robotics.

SoftBank’s Project Izanagi

Masayoshi Son of SoftBank is planning a $100 billion AI chip venture, code-named Izanagi, to compete with Nvidia. While ambitious, the immediate move has been securing thousands of H100s for a domestic Japanese AI computing platform.

ABCI and Fugaku

Japan is also leveraging its supercomputing heritage. The Fugaku supercomputer (once the world’s fastest) is being retasked for LLM training. The urgency here is linguistic and cultural. Most US models are trained primarily on English data, often resulting in subtle “cultural hallucinations” when dealing with Japanese corporate etiquette or nuance. “Sovereign AI” for Japan means an AI that actually understands Japanese context, not just translated text.

Technical Deep Dive: The Sovereign Stack

Building Sovereign AI isn’t just about downloading a model. It requires a complete, vertically integrated stack.

1. The Energy Layer

You can’t have sovereign AI without sovereign, stable power. The power consumption $P$ of a data center is roughly: $P_{total} = P_{IT} + P_{Cooling} + P_{Losses}$ For AI, the density is key. A standard rack might draw 10kW. An Nvidia H100 NVL72 rack can draw 120kW. This requires liquid cooling and specialized substations. Nations are prioritizing data center zones near power generation (Hydro in Nordics, Nuclear in France).

2. The Silicon Layer

This is the choke point. Nations are stockpiling H100s/B200s. The “Sovereignty” comes from ownership. If you rent from AWS, you are a tenant. If you buy the cluster, you are the landlord. The cost of training a model roughly follows a simplified FLOPs calculation: $C \approx 6 \times N \times D \times E_{flop}$ Where:

• $N$ is parameters (e.g., 1 Trillion)
• $D$ is training tokens (e.g., 20 Trillion)
• $E_{flop}$ is energy per floating point operation (approx $10^{-12}$ Joules on unoptimized hardware, much better on H100s).

3. The Data Layer

Sovereignty Data Laws require that “Datasets of National Interest” (census, health, geospatial) never cross borders. This necessitates “Air-Gapped” or “Sovereign Cloud” regions where the fiber optics literally do not connect to the public internet, or go through heavy firewalls.

Industry Impact

The “Balkanization” of the Internet

We are moving from a “World Wide Web” to a “Splinternet” of AI zones.

• Impact on Tech Giants: US Cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google) are adapting by launching “Sovereign Cloud” regions (e.g., “Google Distributed Cloud Hosted”) where the control plane is local, not in Mountain View.
• Impact on Defense: Military AI will never run on a shared cloud. Sovereign AI is effectively a defense sector upgrade, creating a new military-industrial-digital complex.

Economic Divergence

Countries that fail to build Sovereign AI risks becoming “Digital Colonies,” exporting raw data and importing expensive intelligence. Countries that succeed will retain the economic value of their data within their borders.

Future Outlook

Short-Term (1-3 Years)

Expect massive state-sponsored capex. Nations will subsidize GPU purchases like they subsidize shipyards. We will see “National LLMs” (e.g., “BritGPT”, “BharatGPT”) launch with varying degrees of success. Most will fail commercially but succeed strategically as talent magnets.

Long-Term (5+ Years)

The focus will shift from training sovereignty to inference sovereignty. As models commoditize, the ability to run them efficiently at the edge (in national hospitals, schools, and grids) will matter more than having the biggest foundation model. We may also see the emergence of “Sovereign Silicon”—custom ASICs developed by nations (like India or the EU) to reduce reliance on Nvidia.

Conclusion

The race for Sovereign AI is the new Space Race, but with higher stakes. The moon was a symbolic victory; AI is an economic engine. For France, Japan, and the UAE, reliance on US tech is no longer an uncomfortable convenience—it is an unacceptable national security risk. By building their own refineries for the oil of the 21st century, they are ensuring that their digital future is written in their own languages, under their own laws, and on their own silicon.

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Research Notes:

• Data regarding Mistral and Kyutai confirmed via Nvidia and French Ministry sources.
• UAE G42/Microsoft deal details sourced from official press releases and geopolitical analysis.
• Technical power density and training cost models simplified for clarity but based on Kaplan et al. scaling laws.