What Happened
Effective immediately, the panic button has been hit. In the wake of the federal tax credit repeal that took full effect this fall, dealers are staring down a barrel of unsold 2025 inventory as the year closes. The result is a consumer “fire sale” of historic proportions.
Kia has launched a massive $11,000 cash-back offer on the 2025 EV6, valid through January 2, 2026. Ford is matching the desperation with up to $8,000 off the Mustang Mach-E GT and Rally editions, plus 0% financing incentives.
These aren’t just “holiday sales events.” They are corrective maneuvers. With the $7,500 federal lifeline gone, manufacturers are being forced to manually inject the subsidy back into the market from their own margins to move metal before the 2026 models arrive.
Key Details
- The Kia Deal: $11,000 off MSRP for the 2025 EV6. Alternatively, 0% APR for 72 months plus $3,500 cash.
- The Ford Deal: $8,000 off Mach-E GT/Rally, $6,000 off Select/Premium. Includes 0% financing for 72 months and a free home charger installation.
- The Deadline: Most offers expire January 2, 2026 or January 5, 2026.
- The Context: Dealer lots are heavy. 2025 model inventory overhang sits at nearly 19%, significantly higher than the industry average for gas vehicles.
Why It Matters
This is the first true test of the “post-incentive” market. For years, the $7,500 credit acted as a price anchor. Without it, the market is seeing the raw, unsubsidized clearing price of these vehicles.
For Consumers
It looks like a gift. If you missed the tax credit window, Kia and Ford are effectively handing it back to you, plus interest. An $11,000 discount on a $48,000 car is a ~23% price cut immediately. But this gift comes with strings attached: Depreciation.
For the Industry
This signals that the “natural” demand for EVs at MSRP is softer than projected. If automakers have to burn $11,000 per unit to move volume, their long-term margins are in critical danger. This is a survival strategy, not a growth strategy.
The Deep Dive: The Resale Cliff
Here is the math that the salesperson won’t show you. The discount isn’t “free money”; it’s a prepayment on your future losses.
The “Asset Stranding” Risk
2025 model year EVs are in a precarious position. They are the “orphan class”—sold after the subsidy died but before the cheaper, next-gen 2026/2027 platforms arrive (like the Rivian R2 or Tesla’s next platform).
The Calculation: Let’s look at a 2025 Kia EV6 Wind AWD:
- MSRP: ~$50,000
- Discount: -$11,000
- Purchase Price: $39,000
Scenario A: Normal Depreciation (50% in 3 years)
- Residual Value: $25,000
- Total Cost to Own (3 Years): $39,000 - $25,000 = $14,000 loss.
Scenario B: The “Cliff” (Flood of used 2025s) Because dealers are flooding the market with these discounted units now, the used market in 2028 will be saturated with them. Basic economics suggests this will push the residual value down further, potentially to 40%.
- Residual Value: $20,000
- Total Cost to Own (3 Years): $39,000 - $20,000 = $19,000 loss.
Even with the discount, you are burning nearly $6,300 per year in depreciation alone. Compare that to a gas hybrid RAV4, which might lose only $8,000 total over 3 years.
LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) per mile favors the EV only if you keep it for 7+ years. If you trade in at year 3, the depreciation wipes out every penny you saved on gas.
Expert Reactions
Jessica Caldwell (Head of Insights, Edmunds): “[The industry is] seeing a market correction in real-time. The manufacturers know that without the federal backstop, the ‘real’ price of these cars is about $10,000 lower than the sticker. They are just admitting it publicly.”
Automotive News Analyst Note (Dec 22): “The risk for buyers isn’t the price at purchase; it’s the price tomorrow. A 2025 EV bought with heavy incentives will likely suffer the steepest depreciation curve of any vehicle class in history.”
What’s Next
Timeline:
- Jan 5, 2026: Most of these offers expire. Expect them to effectively renew or “rebrand” if inventory doesn’t clear.
- Q1 2026: The arrival of 2026 models. If 2025s are still on the lot, discounts could hit $15,000, further destroying the resale value of anyone who bought in late 2025.
- Mid-2026: The used market begins to reflect these cuts. Expect 1-year-old EV6s and Mach-Es to trade in the high $20k range.
The Verdict: Buy or Lease?
Is it a deal? Yes, but only if you are a “buy and hold” driver.
If you plan to drive this car into the ground over 8-10 years, take the $11,000 and run. You get a fantastic machine for a bargain price, and the resale value in 2035 won’t matter.
But if you are a serial leaser or someone who trades cars every 3-4 years, do not buy. Lease it instead. Let the finance company take the risk on that resale cliff. With lease deals hitting $219/month on the Mach-E, renting the battery is far safer than owning the depreciation.
The Bottom Line
The $11,000 discount is real, but it’s not a charity act; it’s a market correction. The manufacturers are paying you to take a deprecating asset off their hands. If you accept the cash, make sure you’re married to the car, because the divorce in 3 years will be expensive.
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