5 articles
Three simultaneous shocks - $100 oil, a fertilizer supply collapse, and a tariff war - are crushing the global consumer from every direction. S&P Global says Japan, Germany, and the UK tip into recession at $200 oil. The math says the squeeze is already underway at $100.
The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported inflation at 2.4%. But the number is a ghost. A 43-day government shutdown erased October data collection, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to use carry-forward estimates that create an artificial downward bias through April 2026. The Fed, bond markets, and mortgage rates are all calibrated to a broken gauge.
The DOJ's criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's renovation testimony isn't about marble floors or budget overruns. It is a calculated legal maneuver to bypass the Federal Reserve Act's firing protections and force interest rate cuts, threatening to replay the inflationary disaster of 1972.
The 10-year yield is hovering at 4.17%, and markets are betting on a soft landing. But the 'No Landing' economic data is setting a trap identical to the 1994 bond crash.
Why 60% of AI operating cash flow is consumed by CAPEX, and how the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are the critical fuel for the next phase of the infrastructure boom.