7 articles
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point on September 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since 2023, in a unanimous vote under the chair Trump chose to bring rates down. Credit cards and home equity lines reprice within a billing cycle. The Fed did it with core CPI at its lowest since 2021, and its own forecast pencils in one more hike this year.
The April 2026 CPI hit 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest annual reading since May 2023. Core inflation doubled its monthly pace to 0.4%, and real average hourly wages fell 0.3% over the year, the first annual decline since the post-pandemic shock. The gasoline story is no longer just a gasoline story.
Three simultaneous shocks - $100 oil, a fertilizer supply collapse, and a tariff war - are crushing the global consumer from every direction. S&P Global says Japan, Germany, and the UK tip into recession at $200 oil. The math says the squeeze is already underway at $100.
The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported inflation at 2.4%. But the number is a ghost. A 43-day government shutdown erased October data collection, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to use carry-forward estimates that create an artificial downward bias through April 2026. The Fed, bond markets, and mortgage rates are all calibrated to a broken gauge.
The DOJ's criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's renovation testimony isn't about marble floors or budget overruns. It is a calculated legal maneuver to bypass the Federal Reserve Act's firing protections and force interest rate cuts, threatening to replay the inflationary disaster of 1972.
The 10-year yield is hovering at 4.17%, and markets are betting on a soft landing. But the 'No Landing' economic data is setting a trap identical to the 1994 bond crash.
Why 60% of AI operating cash flow is consumed by CAPEX, and how the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are the critical fuel for the next phase of the infrastructure boom.