What Happened
For the first time in history, renewable energy from solar and wind surpassed coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation during the first half of 2025. According to Ember’s Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights report released this week, renewables accounted for the largest share of global power generation, marking a watershed moment in the energy transition.
Solar energy led the charge, growing 31% year-over-year and adding 306 terawatt-hours (TWh) of new generation in just six months. This explosive growth pushed the combined renewable total past coal’s contribution for the first time since the industrial revolution began over a century ago.
The milestone isn’t a one-time anomaly. Projections indicate that 793 gigawatts of renewable capacity will be added globally in 2025, putting the world on track to meet ambitious targets set at the COP28 climate summit.
Key Details
- Renewable Growth (H1 2025): Solar +306 TWh (31% increase), Wind +100 TWh
- Coal vs. Renewables: Renewables now generate more electricity than coal globally
- Total 2025 Capacity Additions: 793 GW of renewable capacity expected
- Geographic Leaders: China (40% of global additions), US, Europe, India
- Cost Trajectory: Solar now cheapest electricity source in history in many markets
- COP28 Target: On track to triple renewable capacity by 2030
Why It Matters
For the Climate
This is the milestone climate advocates have worked toward for decades. Coal is the single largest contributor to global CO2 emissions. Its displacement by renewables represents:
- Emissions reduction: ~500-600 million tons of CO2 avoided in H1 2025 alone
- Acceleration: Transition happening faster than IPCC scenarios predicted even 5 years ago
- Momentum: Once renewables dominate economically, reversal becomes nearly impossible
The pace matters enormously. Every year coal dominance continues adds gigatons of CO2 to the atmosphere. This crossover point—though symbolic in some ways—represents the beginning of the end for coal’s dominance.
For Energy Markets
The economics of electricity generation have fundamentally shifted:
Solar LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy):
- 2010: ~$350/MWh
- 2020: ~$50/MWh
- 2025: ~$30/MWh (many markets now below $20/MWh)
Coal LCOE:
- Relatively stable at $60-100/MWh depending on region
- Rising in many markets due to carbon pricing and aging plants
What this means:
- New solar is cheaper than continuing to operate many existing coal plants
- Utility-scale storage + solar now competes with natural gas peakers
- Coal retirement wave accelerating (200+ GW retired globally 2024-2025)
For Developing Nations
The geographic distribution of growth is striking:
Countries hitting renewable milestones in 2025:
- Pakistan: Renewables now 20% of generation (up from 5% in 2020)
- Hungary: Renewables exceed 25% (solar boom)
- Chile: Renewables surpass 50% of generation
- Kenya: 90%+ renewable (geothermal + hydro + wind)
For developing nations, solar + storage offers:
- Energy independence: No imported coal or gas
- Leapfrog opportunity: Skip fossil infrastructure entirely
- Distributed generation: Solar works without expensive grid buildout
- Job creation: Installation and maintenance jobs can’t be offshored
The Backstory
Coal dominated global electricity for over a century because it was abundant, cheap, and energy-dense. As recently as 2015, coal generated 40% of global electricity while solar was under 1%.
The transformation happened faster than nearly anyone predicted:
2015-2020: Solar costs fell 90%, making it competitive in sunny regions
2020-2023: Solar became cheapest electricity source in most markets globally
2024: Record deployments in China (400 GW), US (50 GW), India (30 GW)
H1 2025: The crossover point
Three factors accelerated the transition:
- Technology: Solar panel efficiency improved while costs plummeted
- Scale: Manufacturing scale (especially China) drove costs down further
- Storage: Battery costs fell enough to solve intermittency problems
The result: solar went from expensive niche to mainstream faster than any energy technology in history.
Expert Reactions
Ember analysts in the report:
“The first half of 2025 will be remembered as the moment when clean electricity overtook the dirtiest. This isn’t a temporary blip—the economic fundamentals mean coal’s dominance is over.”
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol:
“We’re witnessing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of electricity in markets representing 90% of global demand.”
Climate scientists note this milestone arrives faster than predicted:
“IPCC scenarios from 2018 didn’t expect this crossover until 2030-2035. We’re 5-10 years ahead of schedule, which gives us a fighting chance at limiting warming to 1.5-2°C.”
What’s Next
The momentum is accelerating, not slowing:
2025 projections:
- 793 GW renewable capacity additions (equivalent to powering all of Europe)
- Coal retirements: 200-250 GW globally
- Net shift: ~600-700 GW swing from coal to renewables
2026-2030 outlook:
- COP28 target: Triple renewable capacity by 2030 (from 2020 baseline)
- Current trajectory: On track to exceed target
- Key markets: China continues dominance, US accelerates under IRA, India scales rapidly
Timeline:
- 2025: Renewables surpass coal in annual generation (full year)
- 2027: Renewables exceed coal + natural gas combined (optimistic scenario)
- 2030: Coal likely under 15% of global electricity (from 40% in 2015)
Regional Breakdown
China: The Decisive Player
China deserves special attention because it’s decisive for global trends:
- 2024-2025: Added 400+ GW of solar and wind (more than rest of world combined)
- Coal reality: Still building coal plants but running them less (capacity factor declining)
- Motivation: Air quality, energy security, industrial policy (dominate green tech exports)
China’s paradox: building both coal and renewables, but renewables at much faster rate. Coal plants increasingly serve as backup rather than baseload.
United States
- IRA impact: $369B in climate spending accelerating deployments
- 2025 additions: ~50-60 GW solar, ~10 GW wind
- Storage boom: 18.2 GW battery storage added (as we covered yesterday)
- Regional leaders: Texas, California, Southeast
Europe
- Energy security driver: Ukraine war made renewable independence strategic priority
- Offshore wind: North Sea buildout accelerating
- Industrial concerns: High energy costs hurting competitiveness vs. China/US
Developing Markets
- Solar + storage leapfrog: Many nations skipping centralized coal entirely
- Financing challenge: Remains barrier despite improving economics
- Political will: Varies widely by region
The Nuances
Before we declare victory, important context:
Coal isn’t dead:
- Still significant in China, India, Southeast Asia
- Existing plants will run for decades in some markets
- Retirements slower in nations without gas alternative
Renewable challenges remain:
- Intermittency: Storage costs falling but not solved everywhere
- Grid integration: Existing grids designed for centralized generation
- Mineral supply chains: Lithium, cobalt, rare earths face constraints
- Land use: Utility-scale solar requires significant space
Natural gas role:
- Many markets using gas as “bridge fuel” from coal
- Gas-fired capacity still growing in some regions
- Long-term question: does gas get displaced or become permanent backup?
Our Take
The symbolic significance of renewables overtaking coal matters because it demonstrates the energy transition isn’t a distant goal—it’s happening now, faster than expected, driven by economics not just policy.
But let’s be clear about what this milestone does and doesn’t mean:
It DOES mean:
- Solar and wind are now dominant forces in global electricity markets
- Coal’s decline is irreversible in most developed markets
- The economic case for renewables is proven, not theoretical
- Faster transitions than anticipated are possible
It DOESN’T mean:
- Climate crisis is solved (we’re still not decarbonizing fast enough)
- Coal disappears overnight (retirements take decades)
- Other sectors (transportation, industry, heat) are transitioning as quickly
- All countries will follow the same path
The honest assessment: this is significant progress worth celebrating, but it’s still not fast enough to meet climate targets. We need to accelerate further, expand beyond electricity into harder-to-decarbonize sectors, and ensure developing nations get the financing to leapfrog fossil fuels.
Solar overtaking coal is the beginning of the end, not the end itself.
The Bottom Line
Renewable energy from solar and wind surpassed coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation in the first half of 2025, marking a historic turning point in the global energy transition. Solar led with 31% growth, adding 306 TWh of generation, while the world is on track to add 793 GW of renewable capacity by year-end.
This crossover happened 5-10 years faster than climate models predicted, driven by spectacular cost declines (solar LCOE now $20-30/MWh vs. coal’s $60-100/MWh) and record deployments in China, the US, and developing nations. The economics are now decisive: building new solar is cheaper than continuing to operate many existing coal plants.
But context matters. While this milestone represents enormous progress, coal isn’t disappearing immediately, natural gas is growing in many markets, and the pace of decarbonization still falls short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5-2°C. The energy transition is real, accelerating, and inevitable—but we’re still in a race against time.